California's 27th - Post-election Campaign Narrative
In my final post, I break down what happened in the election that was the tipping point for Republicans gaining control of the House in the 2022 midterms.
Post-Election Reflection on Model
In this post, I reflect on my model and its performance in light of the most updated election results.
Final 2022 Election Prediction
In this post, I reveal and break down my final national House of Representatives prediction for the 2022 midterms. What percentage of the popular vote and how many seats will Democrats win? Click to find out!
Blog Post 7 - Shocks
In this post, I will go over what we’ve learned about shocks, and I will update my nationwide models, adding a forecast for Democratic seat share!
Blog Post 6 - The Ground Game
In this post, I will look at voter turnout and how it may be influenced by factors like expert predictions and ad spend. I will also update my model to incorporate turnout and make a prediction for CA-27.
Blog Post 5 - The Air War
In this post, I will take a look at how ad spending can impact voteshare at the district level and what this means for the 2022 election based on ad data from the 2018 election.
Blog Post 4 - Incumbency and Expert Predictions
In this blog post, I primarily look at the role of expert predictions in election forecasting, and I attempt to incorporate them into my forecast that is still based on the incumbent party voteshare.
Blog Post 3 - Polling
In this post, I explore the predictive power of polls and update my economic fundamentals forecast model from last week with polling data.
Blog Post 2 - Fundamentals - Economy
In this post, I build two predictive models using consumer price index (CPI) and unemployment numbers as predictors for the 2022 midterms, and I compare the two models and analyze their predictive power.
Blog Post 1 - Introduction
In the first post of my election blog series, I analyze the two-party congressional voteshare margins for the 2010 and 2014 midterm elections to help determine how incumbent parties usually perform during non-presidential elections.